China's economic growth potential and sources

In hu angang's view, the Chinese government in the future economic growth target at 7%, is a high growth targets, implement double G D P total 10 years. So according to his understanding, 7% is the bottom line of China's economic growth during this period.

So the next twenty years, is refers to the 2011 to 2030, China's economic growth rate how high? , according to research pipe fitting 45 degree LR elbows led by hu angang group during the period of 2011-2030, without considering the ecological constraint conditions, reckons that China's potential growth rate G D P interval for 5. 9% and 9. 2%, the actual G D P growth potential in 7. 9%. When considering the energy supply, resource consumption, ecological environment, carbon dioxide emissions four hard constraints, but also take into account the development goals of the Chinese government is no longer the pursuit of high growth, but the pursuit of quality of growth, lower economic growth, then, moderate growth rate of 7.5% over the next 20 years. Among them, the moderate growth rate of 8% during the 2011-2020. Moderate growth rate of 7% during the 2021-2030.

From the source of economic growth, had the advantage of the following aspects:

First, China is still maintaining high domestic savings rate and domestic investment, material capital investment 45 degree short radius pipe fitting elbows growth rate is still maintaining high growth.

Second, China remained relatively high growth rate of human capital. Education, talent, and the rapid development of science and technology, has brought the higher value-added human capital for China dividend, as a direct positive effect and the surplus offset and more than reduce the negative effects brought by the "demographic dividend".

Third, the growth rate of labor input in the whole society fell, but the non-agricultural employment in cities and towns and sustained growth. This results the structure effect of two aspects: one is to accelerate the "industrialization" or "non-agricultural", a sharp fall in agricultural labor force, and from low productivity of agricultural sector to high 90 degree pipe fitting long radius elbow productivity of the non-agricultural sector, is conducive to improving the social labor productivity level; Two is to accelerate the "urbanization", rural labor declined dramatically, and from the low level of consumption of rural towns transferred to higher consumer spending and has proved to be a large number of rural labor transfer to urban areas, to constantly improve the level of consumption of the whole society.

Fourth, to maintain economic growth is the key to improve the total factor productivity (T F P). From a technical level gap between China and the most developed countries, China also has the very big can make full use of advantage of backwardness ""; Come from China's independent innovation ability, more and more strong, not only will be keep pace with the United States, the European Union, the world's innovation center and can be used the size of the market is more and more big, with the same size as the United States, the European Union effect; Three efficiency from a technical perspective, China also has greatly improved space. We estimate that between 2011 and 2030, total factor growth rate of 3. 6%, driven by factors to innovation driven significant change.